不宜過份幻想

對經濟不宜過份幻想
美國第四季度GDP出乎意料之外出現收縮。雖然美聯儲主席伯南克謂收縮是關乎颶風及個別因素，言下之意情況不會持久，但美國第四季度經濟收縮始終是不爭的事實。反觀歐元區，區內12月失業率仍高企不下於11.7%，1月份製造業採購經理指數雖從12月改善，但仍是低於50點的分水嶺，顯示歐元區製造業仍在收縮之中。中國官方的1月份製造業採購經理指數更跌至僅僅高於分水嶺之上。這一切給予筆者感覺環球經濟雖在復蘇中，但步伐非想像中快。先前市場對經濟前景的過份幻想可能需要有所修正。
商品及股市跟經濟走，當市場對經濟增長的預期要作調整，便同時要對商品及商品貨幣前景預期作調整。這解釋筆者對商品貨幣後向存保留的主因。對於美國第四季度經濟的回落，投資者或許暫且接受了伯南克的解釋，不會對投資市場作拋售。但若是日後歐美或中國公佈的經濟數字再令人失望，提防上升了這麼多的環球股市可能一瞬間轉淡。屆時投資者或再增持現金，即美金，使美元升外幣跌。

Beyonce and Destiny's Child at Super Bowl
Super Bowl: Beyonce wows at half-time show
Beyonce Pepsi Super Bowl XLVII halftime performance

http://www.justjared.com/photo-gallery/2804237/beyonce-super-bowl-halftime-show-2013-watch-now-01/fullsize/
http://www.justjared.com/photo-gallery/2804238/beyonce-super-bowl-halftime-show-2013-watch-now-02/fullsize/
http://www.justjared.com/photo-gallery/2804239/beyonce-super-bowl-halftime-show-2013-watch-now-03/fullsize/
http://www.justjared.com/photo-gallery/2804240/beyonce-super-bowl-halftime-show-2013-watch-now-04/fullsize/
http://www.justjared.com/photo-gallery/2804241/beyonce-super-bowl-halftime-show-2013-watch-now-05/fullsize/
http://www.justjared.com/photo-gallery/2804242/beyonce-super-bowl-halftime-show-2013-watch-now-06/fullsize/
http://www.justjared.com/photo-gallery/2804243/beyonce-super-bowl-halftime-show-2013-watch-now-07/fullsize/
http://www.justjared.com/photo-gallery/2804244/beyonce-super-bowl-halftime-show-2013-watch-now-08/fullsize/
http://www.justjared.com/photo-gallery/2804245/beyonce-super-bowl-halftime-show-2013-watch-now-09/fullsize/
http://www.justjared.com/photo-gallery/2804246/beyonce-super-bowl-halftime-show-2013-watch-now-10/fullsize/
http://www.justjared.com/photo-gallery/2804247/beyonce-super-bowl-halftime-show-2013-watch-now-11/fullsize/
http://www.justjared.com/photo-gallery/2804248/beyonce-super-bowl-halftime-show-2013-watch-now-12/fullsize/
http://www.justjared.com/photo-gallery/2804249/beyonce-super-bowl-halftime-show-2013-watch-now-13/fullsize/

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